Betting Lines
| Spread | SJSU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | AF +120 SJSU -140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJSU +7 | 131 | Lost |
| Massey | SJSU -2.1 (-4.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.2 (-4.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 33% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJSU -3.2 (-3.8) | 133.4 (-2.4) | 38% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJSU -2.3 (-4.7) | 133.7 (-2.7) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJSU -4.7 (-2.3) | 134.2 (-3.2) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SJSU -3.1 (-3.9) | 134.5 (-3.5) | 34% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 25, 2026 | SJSU 86 – 80 AF |
| Jan 14, 2026 | SJSU 70 – 62 AF |
| Feb 1, 2025 | SJSU 75 – 64 AF |
| Feb 14, 2024 | SJSU 73 – 66 AF |
| Jan 14, 2024 | SJSU 70 – 67 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AF | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-28 | 15-20 |
| Conference | 1-19 | 7-13 |
| Home | 3-13 | 7-9 |
| Away | 0-14 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L5 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.9 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.7 | 73.7 |
| Massey | -7.2 (#290) | -1.1 (#178) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.12 (#331) | -0.68 (#232) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.32 (#311) | -0.74 (#223) |
| RPI | 0.402 (#333) | 0.475 (#214) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AF | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 28.7 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 6.4 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.2% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 21.0% | 15.1% |
| ORB% | 21.5% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 27.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 53.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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