Betting Lines
| Spread | SJSU -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | SJSU -550 AF +380 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJSU +11 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | SJSU -10.8 (+0.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.5 (+3.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJSU -9.4 (+1.6) | 133.7 (+5.3) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJSU -8.0 (+3.0) | 132.9 (+6.1) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJSU -8.9 (+2.1) | 134.9 (+4.1) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SJSU -8.8 (+2.2) | 135.9 (+3.1) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 25, 2026 | SJSU 86 – 80 AF |
| Jan 14, 2026 | SJSU 70 – 62 AF |
| Jan 11, 2025 | SJSU 69 – 62 AF |
| Feb 14, 2024 | SJSU 73 – 66 AF |
| Jan 14, 2024 | SJSU 70 – 67 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJSU | AF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-20 | 4-28 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 1-19 |
| Home | 7-9 | 3-13 |
| Away | 3-9 | 0-14 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 61.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.7 | 73.7 |
| Massey | 0.6 (#154) | -7.0 (#277) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.12 (#184) | -2.24 (#336) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.28 (#190) | -2.48 (#328) |
| RPI | 0.482 (#202) | 0.404 (#331) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJSU | AF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 29.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 27.3% | 23.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.3% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 53.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.3% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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