Betting Lines
| Spread | AF -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | AF -110 SJSU +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJSU +3 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | AF -1.2 (-4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.3 (+5.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AF -1.2 (-4.2) | 134.6 (+2.4) | 54% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AF -0.7 (-3.7) | 134.6 (+2.4) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AF -1.2 (-4.2) | 135.4 (+1.6) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AF -0.9 (-3.9) | 136.2 (+0.8) | 47% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 25, 2026 | SJSU 86 – 80 AF |
| Jan 14, 2026 | SJSU 70 – 62 AF |
| Feb 1, 2025 | SJSU 75 – 64 AF |
| Jan 11, 2025 | SJSU 69 – 62 AF |
| Feb 14, 2024 | SJSU 73 – 66 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AF | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-22 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 2-16 | 2-16 |
| Home | 4-12 | 6-9 |
| Away | 5-8 | 1-12 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L5 | L7 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.2 | 68.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 75.2 |
| Massey | -3.5 (#236) | -0.7 (#181) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.60 (#238) | -0.49 (#227) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.70 (#230) | -0.44 (#216) |
| RPI | 0.452 (#255) | 0.458 (#250) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AF | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 31.1 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 7.4 | 7.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 24.2% | 23.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 19.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.9% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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