Betting Lines
| Spread | SJSU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | SJSU -167 AF +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJSU +7 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | SJSU -4.0 (+3.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.4 (+2.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJSU -2.0 (+5.0) | 134.5 (+4.5) | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJSU -3.9 (+3.1) | 133.1 (+5.9) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJSU -2.2 (+4.8) | 136.7 (+2.3) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SJSU -2.0 (+5.0) | 136.3 (+2.7) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 25, 2026 | SJSU 86 – 80 AF |
| Jan 14, 2026 | SJSU 70 – 62 AF |
| Feb 1, 2025 | SJSU 75 – 64 AF |
| Jan 11, 2025 | SJSU 69 – 62 AF |
| Jan 14, 2024 | SJSU 70 – 67 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJSU | AF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 9-22 |
| Conference | 2-16 | 2-16 |
| Home | 6-9 | 4-12 |
| Away | 1-12 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L7 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.1 | 66.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 72.4 |
| Massey | -3.0 (#221) | -3.6 (#233) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.79 (#254) | -0.97 (#273) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.90 (#250) | -0.85 (#244) |
| RPI | 0.463 (#249) | 0.452 (#267) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJSU | AF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 37.3% |
| REB / G | 31.7 | 29.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 54.5% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 24.2% | 25.2% |
| FT Rate | 15.4% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.4% | 53.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.6% | 26.8% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.