Betting Lines
| Spread | SJSU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Over |
| Money | SJSU -250 AF +205 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJSU +8 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | SJSU -12.5 (-4.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.2 (-1.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJSU -8.9 (-0.9) | 131.0 (+1.0) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJSU -10.4 (-2.4) | 129.8 (+2.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJSU -9.9 (-1.9) | 131.0 (+1.0) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SJSU -9.2 (-1.2) | 131.8 (+0.2) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 25, 2026 | SJSU 86 – 80 AF |
| Feb 1, 2025 | SJSU 75 – 64 AF |
| Jan 11, 2025 | SJSU 69 – 62 AF |
| Feb 14, 2024 | SJSU 73 – 66 AF |
| Jan 14, 2024 | SJSU 70 – 67 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJSU | AF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-24 | 3-29 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 0-20 |
| Home | 6-10 | 3-15 |
| Away | 1-12 | 0-12 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L25 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 61.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.2 | 79.9 |
| Massey | -4.0 (#230) | -13.0 (#338) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.01 (#257) | -1.94 (#327) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.24 (#250) | -2.45 (#319) |
| RPI | 0.467 (#237) | 0.432 (#294) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJSU | AF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 28.9% |
| REB / G | 29.9 | 30.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.5% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 22.1% |
| ORB% | 32.6% | 23.6% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 26.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.2% | 53.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 62.6% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 24.5% |
Game Analysis
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