Betting Lines
| Spread | MIA -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | FSU +120 MIA -142 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIA +10 | 156 | Lost |
| Massey | MIA -4.0 (-6.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.6 (-3.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 34% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIA -2.4 (-7.6) | 150.3 (+5.7) | 43% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIA -0.7 (-9.3) | 150.3 (+5.7) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIA -0.8 (-9.2) | 149.0 (+7.0) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIA -0.4 (-9.6) | 150.6 (+5.4) | 53% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 21, 2026 | FSU 65 – 63 MIA |
| Feb 20, 2025 | FSU 74 – 66 MIA |
| Jan 9, 2025 | FSU 80 – 65 MIA |
| Mar 9, 2024 | FSU 83 – 75 MIA |
| Jan 18, 2024 | FSU 84 – 75 MIA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FSU | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 26-9 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 13-5 |
| Home | 11-6 | 15-3 |
| Away | 6-5 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.4 | 81.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.9 | 71.3 |
| Massey | 8.0 (#79) | 15.0 (#34) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.45 (#69) | 2.62 (#30) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.76 (#74) | 3.32 (#29) |
| RPI | 0.544 (#82) | 0.576 (#51) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FSU | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 50.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 1.46 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 55.7% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 37.2% |
| FT Rate | 25.3% | 25.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 68.0% | 74.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
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