Betting Lines
| Spread | FSU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | FSU -213 MIA +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FSU +8 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | FSU -2.4 (+5.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.7 (+4.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FSU -2.9 (+5.1) | 152.9 (+5.1) | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FSU -1.9 (+6.1) | 151.2 (+6.8) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FSU -3.3 (+4.7) | 151.4 (+6.6) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FSU -3.6 (+4.4) | 152.8 (+5.2) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 25, 2026 | MIA 83 – 73 FSU |
| Jan 21, 2026 | FSU 65 – 63 MIA |
| Feb 20, 2025 | FSU 74 – 66 MIA |
| Jan 9, 2025 | FSU 80 – 65 MIA |
| Jan 18, 2024 | FSU 84 – 75 MIA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FSU | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 6-14 |
| Home | 10-7 | 11-6 |
| Away | 4-7 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L10 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.5 | 75.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.3 | 73.6 |
| Massey | 6.9 (#84) | 7.7 (#75) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.17 (#86) | 0.96 (#101) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.48 (#86) | 1.32 (#96) |
| RPI | 0.546 (#99) | 0.507 (#163) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FSU | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 28.5% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 19.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.8% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 67.4% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.5% | 15.8% |
Game Analysis
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