Betting Lines
| Spread | MIA -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
| Money | MIA -250 FSU +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FSU +9 | 159 | Lost |
| Massey | MIA -8.1 (-17.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.8 (+2.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIA -6.2 (-15.2) | 156.8 (+2.2) | 73% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIA -9.0 (-18.0) | 157.7 (+1.3) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIA -6.8 (-15.8) | 153.1 (+5.9) | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MIA -6.9 (-15.9) | 154.0 (+5.0) | 73% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 25, 2026 | MIA 83 – 73 FSU |
| Jan 21, 2026 | FSU 65 – 63 MIA |
| Feb 20, 2025 | FSU 74 – 66 MIA |
| Jan 9, 2025 | FSU 80 – 65 MIA |
| Mar 9, 2024 | FSU 83 – 75 MIA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIA | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 10-10 |
| Home | 11-6 | 10-7 |
| Away | 2-9 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L10 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.8 | 76.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.6 | 76.3 |
| Massey | 10.5 (#48) | 6.3 (#89) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.94 (#48) | 1.21 (#86) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.31 (#50) | 1.56 (#86) |
| RPI | 0.579 (#57) | 0.581 (#56) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIA | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.2% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 40.7% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.0% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 26.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 21.3% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.5% | 27.3% |
Game Analysis
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