Betting Lines
| Spread | MIA -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | MIA -140 FSU +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FSU +15 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | FSU -1.8 (-13.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.7 (-15.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 12% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FSU -3.2 (-11.8) | 155.2 (-10.2) | 35% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FSU -1.1 (-13.9) | 152.1 (-7.1) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FSU -3.1 (-11.9) | 153.7 (-8.7) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FSU -2.8 (-12.2) | 155.5 (-10.5) | 37% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 25, 2026 | MIA 83 – 73 FSU |
| Jan 21, 2026 | FSU 65 – 63 MIA |
| Feb 20, 2025 | FSU 74 – 66 MIA |
| Mar 9, 2024 | FSU 83 – 75 MIA |
| Jan 18, 2024 | FSU 84 – 75 MIA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIA | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-24 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 8-12 |
| Home | 7-10 | 11-5 |
| Away | 0-10 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.0 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.6 | 72.5 |
| Massey | 2.4 (#118) | 8.3 (#69) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.48 (#298) | 1.32 (#75) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.39 (#268) | 1.62 (#79) |
| RPI | 0.434 (#292) | 0.569 (#65) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIA | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.5% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.1% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 31.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.3% | 47.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 21.7% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.1% | 28.8% |
Game Analysis
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