Betting Lines
| Spread | FSU -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | FSU -425 MIA +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FSU +8 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | FSU -10.8 (-2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.9 (-17.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FSU -9.4 (-1.4) | 148.5 (-8.5) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FSU -10.5 (-2.5) | 150.7 (-10.7) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FSU -10.6 (-2.6) | 152.1 (-12.1) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FSU -10.2 (-2.2) | 151.9 (-11.9) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 25, 2026 | MIA 83 – 73 FSU |
| Jan 21, 2026 | FSU 65 – 63 MIA |
| Jan 9, 2025 | FSU 80 – 65 MIA |
| Mar 9, 2024 | FSU 83 – 75 MIA |
| Jan 18, 2024 | FSU 84 – 75 MIA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FSU | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 7-24 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 3-17 |
| Home | 11-5 | 7-10 |
| Away | 2-9 | 0-10 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 80.6 |
| Massey | 7.0 (#82) | -0.6 (#170) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.93 (#93) | -1.09 (#273) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.16 (#94) | -0.99 (#243) |
| RPI | 0.529 (#127) | 0.448 (#275) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FSU | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 28.4% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 56.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.3% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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