Betting Lines
| Spread | MIA -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 163.5 Under |
| Money | MIA -700 FSU +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FSU +2 | 128 | Lost |
| Massey | MIA -15.0 (-17.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 166.0 (-38.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIA -13.9 (-15.9) | 157.8 (-29.8) | 88% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIA -11.0 (-13.0) | 162.0 (-34.0) | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIA -13.4 (-15.4) | 156.8 (-28.8) | 88% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MIA -13.3 (-15.3) | 156.4 (-28.4) | 88% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 25, 2026 | MIA 83 – 73 FSU |
| Feb 20, 2025 | FSU 74 – 66 MIA |
| Jan 9, 2025 | FSU 80 – 65 MIA |
| Mar 9, 2024 | FSU 83 – 75 MIA |
| Jan 18, 2024 | FSU 84 – 75 MIA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIA | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-9 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 10-8 |
| Home | 15-3 | 11-6 |
| Away | 8-2 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.5 | 80.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 77.9 |
| Massey | 15.6 (#30) | 3.9 (#112) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.87 (#23) | -0.19 (#192) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.69 (#25) | -0.08 (#173) |
| RPI | 0.584 (#50) | 0.492 (#191) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIA | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.0% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 39.1 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 13.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.54 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.8% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 38.2% | 33.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 53.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 66.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 26.9% |
Game Analysis
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