Betting Lines
| Spread | ARST -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Over |
| Money | ARST -455 USM +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARST +5 | 173 | Won |
| Massey | ARST -8.7 (-3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.1 (+13.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARST -8.5 (-3.5) | 153.5 (+19.5) | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARST -11.7 (-6.7) | 153.3 (+19.7) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARST -9.6 (-4.6) | 151.4 (+21.6) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARST -8.4 (-3.4) | 154.0 (+19.0) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 20, 2025 | ARST 93 – 86 USM |
| Feb 13, 2025 | ARST 101 – 67 USM |
| Jan 30, 2025 | ARST 81 – 68 USM |
| Feb 1, 2024 | ARST 78 – 71 USM |
| Jan 18, 2024 | USM 69 – 66 ARST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARST | USM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 19-16 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 9-9 |
| Home | 11-4 | 10-3 |
| Away | 9-7 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.8 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.0 | 74.8 |
| Massey | 1.1 (#143) | -4.7 (#237) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.31 (#138) | -0.41 (#213) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.42 (#132) | -0.71 (#224) |
| RPI | 0.539 (#90) | 0.493 (#198) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARST | USM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 28.4% |
| REB / G | 41.4 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 14.3 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 38.3% | 32.1% |
| FT Rate | 28.4% | 31.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.0% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.6% | 28.8% |
Game Analysis
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