Betting Lines
| Spread | ARST -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | USM +360 ARST -500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARST +13 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | ARST -8.8 (-4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.6 (-0.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARST -8.4 (-4.6) | 149.1 (-0.1) | 19% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARST -8.1 (-4.9) | 150.2 (-1.2) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARST -7.8 (-5.2) | 146.0 (+3.0) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARST -8.7 (-4.3) | 147.4 (+1.6) | 21% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 25, 2026 | ARST 89 – 84 USM |
| Dec 20, 2025 | ARST 93 – 86 USM |
| Feb 13, 2025 | ARST 101 – 67 USM |
| Feb 1, 2024 | ARST 78 – 71 USM |
| Jan 18, 2024 | USM 69 – 66 ARST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USM | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-22 | 25-11 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 13-5 |
| Home | 9-6 | 14-2 |
| Away | 1-13 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.9 | 78.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.5 | 70.5 |
| Massey | -6.3 (#263) | 5.9 (#93) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.95 (#250) | 1.22 (#83) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.34 (#268) | 1.53 (#82) |
| RPI | 0.444 (#271) | 0.576 (#56) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USM | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 41.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 40.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 21.0% | 14.5% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 31.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 44.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 67.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.8% | 25.7% |
Game Analysis
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