Betting Lines
| Spread | ARST -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | USM +138 ARST -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USM +3 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | ARST -0.3 (+3.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.5 (-16.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USM -0.7 (+2.3) | 150.0 (-15.0) | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USM -1.7 (+1.3) | 149.4 (-14.4) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USM -0.7 (+2.3) | 149.2 (-14.2) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USM -0.5 (+2.5) | 149.4 (-14.4) | 54% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 25, 2026 | ARST 89 – 84 USM |
| Dec 20, 2025 | ARST 93 – 86 USM |
| Feb 13, 2025 | ARST 101 – 67 USM |
| Jan 30, 2025 | ARST 81 – 68 USM |
| Feb 1, 2024 | ARST 78 – 71 USM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USM | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 20-17 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 11-7 |
| Home | 11-3 | 10-3 |
| Away | 5-9 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.9 | 78.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.9 | 77.0 |
| Massey | -4.9 (#262) | -0.8 (#184) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.01 (#176) | -0.69 (#243) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.36 (#212) | -0.70 (#231) |
| RPI | 0.503 (#168) | 0.451 (#257) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USM | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.4% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 33.1% |
| FT Rate | 27.1% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 13.7% |
| DRB% | 66.9% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 29.2% |
Game Analysis
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