Betting Lines
| Spread | ARST -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | USM +110 ARST -130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARST +7 | 179 | Lost |
| Massey | USM -3.5 (-10.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.4 (+17.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USM -1.5 (-8.5) | 151.7 (+27.3) | 59% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARST -0.0 (-7.0) | 147.2 (+31.8) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USM -1.6 (-8.6) | 149.1 (+29.9) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USM -1.2 (-8.2) | 152.1 (+26.9) | 59% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 25, 2026 | ARST 89 – 84 USM |
| Feb 13, 2025 | ARST 101 – 67 USM |
| Jan 30, 2025 | ARST 81 – 68 USM |
| Feb 1, 2024 | ARST 78 – 71 USM |
| Jan 18, 2024 | USM 69 – 66 ARST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USM | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-16 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 11-7 |
| Home | 10-3 | 11-4 |
| Away | 4-11 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 81.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 78.0 |
| Massey | -0.1 (#171) | 0.8 (#153) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.15 (#193) | 1.28 (#88) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.06 (#172) | 1.76 (#86) |
| RPI | 0.497 (#179) | 0.572 (#67) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USM | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 27.0% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 39.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 13.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 21.0% |
| ORB% | 34.6% | 36.1% |
| FT Rate | 29.2% | 29.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 15.1% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.9% | 26.7% |
Game Analysis
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