Betting Lines
| Spread | ARST -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | ARST -250 USM +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARST +7 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | ARST -6.4 (+0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.2 (-1.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARST -3.6 (+3.4) | 146.6 (+2.4) | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARST -3.4 (+3.6) | 146.4 (+2.6) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARST -3.6 (+3.4) | 144.5 (+4.5) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARST -3.5 (+3.5) | 145.0 (+4.0) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 25, 2026 | ARST 89 – 84 USM |
| Dec 20, 2025 | ARST 93 – 86 USM |
| Feb 13, 2025 | ARST 101 – 67 USM |
| Jan 30, 2025 | ARST 81 – 68 USM |
| Jan 18, 2024 | USM 69 – 66 ARST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARST | USM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-17 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 9-9 |
| Home | 10-3 | 11-3 |
| Away | 5-11 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 69.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.0 | 72.9 |
| Massey | -1.1 (#186) | -3.9 (#242) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.79 (#251) | 0.15 (#161) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.66 (#231) | -0.17 (#185) |
| RPI | 0.449 (#268) | 0.513 (#148) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARST | USM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 38.1 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 33.1% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 25.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.2% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.2% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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