Betting Lines
| Spread | ARST -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | ARST -2000 USM +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARST +34 | 168 | Won |
| Massey | ARST -15.4 (+18.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.6 (+18.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARST -13.0 (+21.0) | 146.7 (+21.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARST -13.2 (+20.8) | 146.8 (+21.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARST -12.8 (+21.2) | 146.1 (+21.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARST -13.4 (+20.6) | 146.1 (+21.9) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 25, 2026 | ARST 89 – 84 USM |
| Dec 20, 2025 | ARST 93 – 86 USM |
| Jan 30, 2025 | ARST 81 – 68 USM |
| Feb 1, 2024 | ARST 78 – 71 USM |
| Jan 18, 2024 | USM 69 – 66 ARST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARST | USM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-11 | 11-22 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 5-13 |
| Home | 14-2 | 9-6 |
| Away | 8-6 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.7 | 69.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 76.5 |
| Massey | 6.0 (#90) | -6.2 (#268) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.00 (#93) | -1.03 (#261) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.32 (#87) | -1.36 (#270) |
| RPI | 0.577 (#52) | 0.448 (#269) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARST | USM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.8% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 39.8 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 47.8% |
| TOV% | 14.8% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 25.4% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.7% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.1% | 24.5% |
Game Analysis
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