Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | UVA -285 NCSU +230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +29 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | UVA -3.5 (+25.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.4 (-6.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -5.9 (+23.1) | 152.3 (-1.3) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -5.2 (+23.8) | 152.1 (-1.1) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -6.5 (+22.5) | 150.9 (+0.1) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -5.1 (+23.9) | 151.9 (-0.9) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | UVA 81 – 74 NCSU |
| Jan 3, 2026 | UVA 76 – 61 NCSU |
| Dec 31, 2024 | UVA 70 – 67 NCSU |
| Mar 16, 2024 | NCSU 73 – 65 UVA |
| Jan 25, 2024 | UVA 59 – 53 NCSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-6 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 10-8 |
| Home | 16-1 | 11-6 |
| Away | 8-2 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.4 | 83.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 76.3 |
| Massey | 18.1 (#23) | 17.5 (#24) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.55 (#13) | 2.47 (#34) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.35 (#14) | 3.23 (#35) |
| RPI | 0.626 (#19) | 0.600 (#32) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 47.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 39.6% |
| REB / G | 41.3 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.56 | 1.72 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.8% | 56.5% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 13.3% |
| ORB% | 39.5% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.2% | 26.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.2% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.3% | 25.2% |
Game Analysis
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