Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | UVA -285 NCSU +230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +7 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | UVA -2.8 (+4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.9 (-1.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -4.4 (+2.6) | 153.2 (+1.8) | 72% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | UVA -5.2 (+1.8) | 147.8 (+7.2) | 76% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | UVA -5.1 (+1.9) | 151.7 (+3.3) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -5.0 (+2.0) | 151.5 (+3.5) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 25, 2026 | UVA 90 – 61 NCSU |
| Jan 3, 2026 | UVA 76 – 61 NCSU |
| Dec 31, 2024 | UVA 70 – 67 NCSU |
| Mar 16, 2024 | NCSU 73 – 65 UVA |
| Jan 25, 2024 | UVA 59 – 53 NCSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-6 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 10-8 |
| Home | 16-1 | 11-6 |
| Away | 8-2 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.4 | 83.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 76.3 |
| Massey | 18.0 (#21) | 15.2 (#32) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.57 (#12) | 2.13 (#42) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.33 (#11) | 2.94 (#39) |
| RPI | 0.624 (#16) | 0.579 (#41) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 38.5% |
| REB / G | 40.8 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 13.5 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.55 | 1.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.4% | 55.6% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 13.1% |
| ORB% | 38.3% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 26.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.4% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.7% | 25.7% |
Game Analysis
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