Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 122.5 Over |
| Money | UVA -138 NCSU +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCSU +8 | 138 | Lost |
| Massey | UVA -0.4 (-8.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 123.4 (+14.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCSU -0.4 (-7.6) | 124.7 (+13.3) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCSU -0.6 (-7.4) | 128.3 (+9.7) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NCSU -0.4 (-7.6) | 129.4 (+8.6) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCSU -0.9 (-7.1) | 127.9 (+10.1) | 46% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | UVA 81 – 74 NCSU |
| Feb 25, 2026 | UVA 90 – 61 NCSU |
| Jan 3, 2026 | UVA 76 – 61 NCSU |
| Dec 31, 2024 | UVA 70 – 67 NCSU |
| Jan 25, 2024 | UVA 59 – 53 NCSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 26-15 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 9-11 |
| Home | 15-2 | 12-5 |
| Away | 5-6 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 10-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.9 | 75.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 59.8 | 71.8 |
| Massey | 8.8 (#65) | 8.4 (#71) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.09 (#34) | 1.53 (#66) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.17 (#51) | 1.83 (#67) |
| RPI | 0.587 (#36) | 0.528 (#117) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.85 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 13.3% | 13.8% |
| ORB% | 25.8% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 16.3% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.1% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.1% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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