Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -0.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 122.5 Over |
| Money | UVA +100 NCSU -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +3 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | UVA -1.8 (+1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 117.7 (+19.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -1.9 (+1.1) | 126.2 (+10.8) | 60% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -3.2 (-0.2) | 127.6 (+9.4) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -0.6 (+2.4) | 125.1 (+11.9) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -1.4 (+1.6) | 125.4 (+11.6) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | UVA 81 – 74 NCSU |
| Feb 25, 2026 | UVA 90 – 61 NCSU |
| Jan 3, 2026 | UVA 76 – 61 NCSU |
| Mar 16, 2024 | NCSU 73 – 65 UVA |
| Jan 25, 2024 | UVA 59 – 53 NCSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 12-19 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 5-15 |
| Home | 10-7 | 12-6 |
| Away | 4-7 | 0-11 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.8 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.8 | 70.4 |
| Massey | 3.3 (#109) | 5.7 (#94) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.34 (#76) | 0.53 (#130) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.96 (#75) | 0.91 (#115) |
| RPI | 0.562 (#78) | 0.502 (#167) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 37.9% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.2 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 1.41 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 14.4% |
| ORB% | 24.2% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 19.4% | 27.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.6% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 21.7% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 65.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.3% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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