Betting Lines
| Spread | NCSU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | NCSU -205 UVA +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +15 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | NCSU -5.9 (-20.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.5 (-27.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCSU -6.0 (-21.0) | 153.0 (-16.0) | 71% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCSU -3.1 (-18.1) | 153.5 (-16.5) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCSU -6.1 (-21.1) | 153.5 (-16.5) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NCSU -6.0 (-21.0) | 153.5 (-16.5) | 71% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | UVA 81 – 74 NCSU |
| Feb 25, 2026 | UVA 90 – 61 NCSU |
| Dec 31, 2024 | UVA 70 – 67 NCSU |
| Mar 16, 2024 | NCSU 73 – 65 UVA |
| Jan 25, 2024 | UVA 59 – 53 NCSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCSU | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 30-6 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 15-3 |
| Home | 11-6 | 16-1 |
| Away | 6-4 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.2 | 80.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.3 | 68.8 |
| Massey | 16.9 (#24) | 14.8 (#33) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.96 (#53) | 2.21 (#46) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.16 (#42) | 2.95 (#48) |
| RPI | 0.575 (#62) | 0.587 (#48) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCSU | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.7% | 48.2% |
| 3PT% | 38.5% | 37.5% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 42.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 14.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.65 | 1.66 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.4% | 56.5% |
| TOV% | 14.6% | 15.1% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 40.9% |
| FT Rate | 26.6% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 44.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.6% | 25.6% |
Game Analysis
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