Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Under |
| Money | UVA -213 NCSU +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +6 | 112 | Won |
| Massey | UVA -4.2 (+1.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.1 (-15.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -3.9 (+2.1) | 124.0 (-12.0) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -2.5 (+3.5) | 129.1 (-17.1) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -3.7 (+2.3) | 128.9 (-16.9) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -3.4 (+2.6) | 127.3 (-15.3) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | UVA 81 – 74 NCSU |
| Feb 25, 2026 | UVA 90 – 61 NCSU |
| Jan 3, 2026 | UVA 76 – 61 NCSU |
| Dec 31, 2024 | UVA 70 – 67 NCSU |
| Mar 16, 2024 | NCSU 73 – 65 UVA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 26-15 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 9-11 |
| Home | 15-2 | 12-5 |
| Away | 5-6 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 10-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.9 | 75.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 59.8 | 71.8 |
| Massey | 8.0 (#70) | 7.5 (#73) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.86 (#47) | 1.71 (#58) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.07 (#66) | 2.10 (#62) |
| RPI | 0.586 (#48) | 0.548 (#101) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 32.1 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.91 | 1.36 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 13.3% | 13.9% |
| ORB% | 25.0% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 18.1% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.3% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.9% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.8% | 25.6% |
Game Analysis
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