Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -16.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | ND +1100 DUKE -2100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +44 | 156 | Lost |
| Massey | DUKE -17.2 (-26.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.1 (+12.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -13.0 (-31.0) | 139.2 (+16.8) | 12% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -13.4 (-30.6) | 138.2 (+17.8) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -13.5 (-30.5) | 138.9 (+17.1) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -12.7 (-31.3) | 139.1 (+16.9) | 13% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 11, 2025 | DUKE 86 – 78 ND |
| Feb 8, 2024 | DUKE 71 – 53 ND |
| Jan 6, 2024 | DUKE 67 – 59 ND |
| Feb 15, 2023 | DUKE 68 – 64 ND |
| Feb 1, 2022 | DUKE 57 – 43 ND |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ND | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-18 | 35-3 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 17-1 |
| Home | 10-7 | 15-0 |
| Away | 2-9 | 10-1 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 10-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 81.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.3 | 63.6 |
| Massey | 7.4 (#84) | 27.5 (#2) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.88 (#94) | 4.86 (#2) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.21 (#94) | 6.54 (#1) |
| RPI | 0.522 (#126) | 0.679 (#2) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ND | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 50.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 39.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 1.58 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 57.5% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 36.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 26.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 46.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.4% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 74.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.4% | 16.0% |
Game Analysis
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