Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +14 | 100 | Lost |
| Massey | DUKE -6.4 (-7.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.4 (-44.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 33% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -4.2 (-9.8) | 144.4 (-44.4) | 37% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -3.6 (-10.4) | 142.0 (-42.0) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -3.6 (-10.4) | 145.0 (-45.0) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -3.9 (-10.1) | 144.2 (-44.2) | 36% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 25, 2026 | DUKE 100 – 56 ND |
| Jan 11, 2025 | DUKE 86 – 78 ND |
| Feb 8, 2024 | DUKE 71 – 53 ND |
| Jan 6, 2024 | DUKE 67 – 59 ND |
| Feb 15, 2023 | DUKE 68 – 64 ND |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ND | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 32-7 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 16-4 |
| Home | 14-1 | 15-3 |
| Away | 7-5 | 9-2 |
| Neutral | 2-5 | 8-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.1 | 80.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 67.8 |
| Massey | 7.4 (#75) | 17.1 (#13) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.62 (#63) | 2.87 (#16) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.86 (#70) | 4.20 (#10) |
| RPI | 0.578 (#58) | 0.620 (#21) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ND | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 48.8% |
| 3PT% | 37.4% | 37.1% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 38.5 |
| OREB / G | 6.9 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 1.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.4% | 55.5% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 21.6% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 45.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 76.5% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.8% | 11.6% |
Game Analysis
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