Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -16.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | DUKE -2500 ND +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +18 | 124 | Won |
| Massey | DUKE -18.5 (-0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.7 (-10.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -17.3 (+0.7) | 132.0 (-8.0) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -15.9 (+2.1) | 134.5 (-10.5) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -15.5 (+2.5) | 134.1 (-10.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -15.9 (+2.1) | 133.7 (-9.7) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 25, 2026 | DUKE 100 – 56 ND |
| Jan 11, 2025 | DUKE 86 – 78 ND |
| Jan 6, 2024 | DUKE 67 – 59 ND |
| Feb 15, 2023 | DUKE 68 – 64 ND |
| Feb 1, 2022 | DUKE 57 – 43 ND |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | ND |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 7-13 |
| Home | 15-3 | 9-8 |
| Away | 7-4 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.6 | 64.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 67.2 |
| Massey | 15.6 (#17) | 0.5 (#155) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.18 (#29) | -0.45 (#217) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.88 (#22) | -0.41 (#208) |
| RPI | 0.590 (#40) | 0.475 (#217) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | ND |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.4% | 40.1% |
| 3PT% | 38.1% | 30.3% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.65 | 0.70 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.3% | 46.8% |
| TOV% | 13.7% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 28.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.1% | 19.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 76.2% | 74.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
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