Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | ND +700 DUKE -1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +8 | 126 | Lost |
| Massey | DUKE -13.0 (+5.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.4 (-9.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -10.9 (+2.9) | 134.6 (-8.6) | 13% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -11.7 (+3.7) | 133.2 (-7.2) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -12.0 (+4.0) | 134.0 (-8.0) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -11.0 (+3.0) | 136.7 (-10.7) | 13% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 25, 2026 | DUKE 100 – 56 ND |
| Jan 11, 2025 | DUKE 86 – 78 ND |
| Feb 8, 2024 | DUKE 71 – 53 ND |
| Feb 15, 2023 | DUKE 68 – 64 ND |
| Feb 1, 2022 | DUKE 57 – 43 ND |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ND | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 27-9 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 15-5 |
| Home | 9-8 | 15-3 |
| Away | 2-10 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.0 | 78.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 66.3 |
| Massey | -0.6 (#174) | 16.7 (#10) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.31 (#198) | 1.88 (#45) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.38 (#202) | 2.70 (#39) |
| RPI | 0.511 (#154) | 0.587 (#49) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ND | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.2% | 49.7% |
| 3PT% | 28.7% | 37.2% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 1.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.6% | 56.1% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 13.0% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 20.4% | 26.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.0% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 76.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.7% | 19.8% |
Game Analysis
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