Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -19.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | DUKE -6000 ND +1500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +8 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | DUKE -24.8 (-16.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.1 (+27.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -18.9 (-10.9) | 137.0 (+27.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -17.7 (-9.7) | 139.2 (+24.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -17.7 (-9.7) | 138.1 (+25.9) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -19.7 (-11.7) | 138.3 (+25.7) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 25, 2026 | DUKE 100 – 56 ND |
| Feb 8, 2024 | DUKE 71 – 53 ND |
| Jan 6, 2024 | DUKE 67 – 59 ND |
| Feb 15, 2023 | DUKE 68 – 64 ND |
| Feb 1, 2022 | DUKE 57 – 43 ND |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | ND |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 35-4 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 19-1 | 8-12 |
| Home | 17-0 | 11-5 |
| Away | 10-1 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 8-3 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.2 | 72.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.8 | 72.5 |
| Massey | 26.7 (#2) | 5.8 (#85) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.94 (#6) | -0.06 (#181) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.44 (#5) | 0.51 (#136) |
| RPI | 0.666 (#8) | 0.494 (#185) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | ND |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.5% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 39.9 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.63 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.2% | 53.9% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 34.6% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.3% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 14.6% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.3% | 20.2% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.