Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | DUKE -800 ND +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +4 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | DUKE -16.3 (-12.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.8 (-4.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -14.6 (-10.6) | 139.5 (-7.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -13.1 (-9.1) | 138.9 (-6.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -13.6 (-9.6) | 139.8 (-7.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -14.0 (-10.0) | 141.1 (-9.1) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 25, 2026 | DUKE 100 – 56 ND |
| Jan 11, 2025 | DUKE 86 – 78 ND |
| Feb 8, 2024 | DUKE 71 – 53 ND |
| Jan 6, 2024 | DUKE 67 – 59 ND |
| Feb 1, 2022 | DUKE 57 – 43 ND |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | ND |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 3-17 |
| Home | 16-0 | 11-8 |
| Away | 4-6 | 0-10 |
| Neutral | 7-3 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.6 | 72.1 |
| Massey | 11.4 (#31) | -1.2 (#198) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.23 (#26) | -0.43 (#219) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.63 (#31) | -0.36 (#201) |
| RPI | 0.609 (#20) | 0.466 (#249) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | ND |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 36.9% |
| REB / G | 39.6 | 30.8 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 6.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.41 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 13.3% |
| ORB% | 37.7% | 20.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 17.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.8% | 53.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 13.7% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 74.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.5% | 18.7% |
Game Analysis
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