Betting Lines
| Spread | GTWN -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | GTWN -142 MARQ +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GTWN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MARQ +16 | 136 | Lost |
| Massey | GTWN -4.3 (-20.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.3 (-16.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GTWN -5.2 (-21.2) | 148.5 (-12.5) | 70% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GTWN -4.5 (-20.5) | 149.6 (-13.6) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GTWN -5.7 (-21.7) | 145.9 (-9.9) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GTWN -4.9 (-20.9) | 147.4 (-11.4) | 71% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 18, 2025 | GTWN 78 – 69 MARQ |
| Mar 2, 2025 | MARQ 76 – 61 GTWN |
| Jan 8, 2025 | MARQ 74 – 66 GTWN |
| Feb 3, 2024 | MARQ 91 – 57 GTWN |
| Dec 23, 2023 | MARQ 81 – 51 GTWN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GTWN | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-18 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 7-13 |
| Home | 10-7 | 10-7 |
| Away | 4-8 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.6 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.9 | 75.8 |
| Massey | 6.4 (#92) | 5.1 (#102) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.08 (#88) | 0.23 (#147) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.64 (#81) | 0.52 (#126) |
| RPI | 0.516 (#142) | 0.471 (#243) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GTWN | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.42 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 32.6% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 29.2% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 65.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.3% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
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