Betting Lines
| Spread | MARQ -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | GTWN +320 MARQ -425 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GTWN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MARQ +15 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | MARQ -6.0 (-9.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.8 (-3.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 25% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MARQ -3.8 (-11.2) | 141.6 (-4.6) | 32% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MARQ -4.5 (-10.5) | 141.5 (-4.5) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MARQ -5.7 (-9.3) | 140.9 (-3.9) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MARQ -4.1 (-10.9) | 141.8 (-4.8) | 34% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 25, 2026 | MARQ 76 – 60 GTWN |
| Dec 18, 2025 | GTWN 78 – 69 MARQ |
| Jan 8, 2025 | MARQ 74 – 66 GTWN |
| Feb 3, 2024 | MARQ 91 – 57 GTWN |
| Dec 23, 2023 | MARQ 81 – 51 GTWN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GTWN | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 13-7 |
| Home | 14-5 | 14-3 |
| Away | 3-9 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 68.7 |
| Massey | 7.2 (#81) | 16.4 (#21) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.85 (#103) | 2.50 (#31) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.09 (#98) | 3.26 (#28) |
| RPI | 0.508 (#168) | 0.610 (#21) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GTWN | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.3% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 1.57 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 13.3% |
| ORB% | 32.5% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 17.9% | 19.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 22.7% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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