Betting Lines
| Spread | MARQ -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | GTWN +550 MARQ -1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GTWN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MARQ +34 | 148 | Lost |
| Massey | MARQ -12.1 (-21.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.9 (-2.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MARQ -11.2 (-22.8) | 147.0 (+1.0) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MARQ -11.6 (-22.4) | 149.3 (-1.3) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MARQ -10.6 (-23.4) | 150.5 (-2.5) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MARQ -11.4 (-22.6) | 150.2 (-2.2) | 16% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 25, 2026 | MARQ 76 – 60 GTWN |
| Dec 18, 2025 | GTWN 78 – 69 MARQ |
| Mar 2, 2025 | MARQ 76 – 61 GTWN |
| Jan 8, 2025 | MARQ 74 – 66 GTWN |
| Dec 23, 2023 | MARQ 81 – 51 GTWN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GTWN | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 27-10 |
| Conference | 2-18 | 14-6 |
| Home | 7-12 | 14-2 |
| Away | 2-10 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 78.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.9 | 69.8 |
| Massey | -0.1 (#167) | 15.5 (#16) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.49 (#225) | 2.60 (#12) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.23 (#189) | 3.18 (#13) |
| RPI | 0.462 (#247) | 0.619 (#20) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GTWN | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 33.4% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.59 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 54.3% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 34.5% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.3% | 19.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 22.3% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
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