Betting Lines
| Spread | UCLA -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | UCLA -325 USC +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCLA +19 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | UCLA -6.8 (+12.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.7 (-11.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCLA -5.7 (+13.3) | 152.6 (-9.6) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCLA -7.0 (+12.0) | 152.9 (-9.9) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCLA -6.1 (+12.9) | 151.0 (-8.0) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCLA -5.9 (+13.1) | 152.5 (-9.5) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | UCLA 89 – 68 USC |
| Mar 9, 2025 | UCLA 90 – 63 USC |
| Jan 28, 2025 | UCLA 82 – 76 USC |
| Feb 25, 2024 | USC 62 – 56 UCLA |
| Jan 28, 2024 | UCLA 65 – 50 USC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCLA | USC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 7-13 |
| Home | 17-1 | 9-7 |
| Away | 4-6 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 3-5 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L8 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.1 | 77.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.1 | 78.4 |
| Massey | 13.3 (#42) | 9.4 (#63) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.41 (#35) | 2.08 (#49) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.83 (#44) | 2.51 (#50) |
| RPI | 0.580 (#47) | 0.571 (#59) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCLA | USC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 37.9% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 32.3 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.65 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 13.9% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 27.0% | 33.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 67.3% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.4% | 27.5% |
Game Analysis
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