Betting Lines
| Spread | UCLA -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | USC +190 UCLA -230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCLA +21 | 157 | Lost |
| Massey | UCLA -2.9 (-18.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.4 (+2.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCLA -3.3 (-17.7) | 148.8 (+8.2) | 38% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCLA -2.5 (-18.5) | 149.2 (+7.8) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCLA -1.6 (-19.4) | 148.8 (+8.2) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCLA -1.8 (-19.2) | 149.2 (+7.8) | 40% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 25, 2026 | UCLA 81 – 62 USC |
| Mar 9, 2025 | UCLA 90 – 63 USC |
| Jan 28, 2025 | UCLA 82 – 76 USC |
| Feb 25, 2024 | USC 62 – 56 UCLA |
| Jan 28, 2024 | UCLA 65 – 50 USC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USC | UCLA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 24-12 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 13-7 |
| Home | 9-7 | 17-1 |
| Away | 5-6 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 3-5 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L8 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.8 | 77.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.4 | 71.1 |
| Massey | 8.4 (#72) | 14.3 (#37) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.84 (#53) | 2.43 (#32) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.16 (#61) | 3.01 (#38) |
| RPI | 0.559 (#66) | 0.581 (#41) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USC | UCLA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 37.8% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 13.6% |
| ORB% | 33.1% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 33.1% | 25.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 67.5% | 67.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.4% | 26.6% |
Game Analysis
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