Betting Lines
| Spread | UCLA -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | UCLA -650 USC +425 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCLA +27 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | UCLA -9.7 (+17.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.2 (+10.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCLA -10.3 (+16.7) | 140.0 (+13.0) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCLA -9.4 (+17.6) | 137.5 (+15.5) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCLA -9.0 (+18.0) | 138.8 (+14.2) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCLA -9.2 (+17.8) | 140.7 (+12.3) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | UCLA 89 – 68 USC |
| Feb 25, 2026 | UCLA 81 – 62 USC |
| Jan 28, 2025 | UCLA 82 – 76 USC |
| Feb 25, 2024 | USC 62 – 56 UCLA |
| Jan 28, 2024 | UCLA 65 – 50 USC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCLA | USC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 17-18 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 7-13 |
| Home | 15-2 | 12-7 |
| Away | 5-5 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 76.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.2 | 74.6 |
| Massey | 16.0 (#25) | 9.6 (#60) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.61 (#29) | 1.33 (#73) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.25 (#30) | 2.07 (#62) |
| RPI | 0.589 (#37) | 0.538 (#103) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCLA | USC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 48.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 37.0% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 31.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.50 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 54.7% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 32.7% | 27.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 27.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.8% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.3% | 27.0% |
Game Analysis
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