Betting Lines
| Spread | USC -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | USC -213 UCLA +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCLA +15 | 115 | Lost |
| Massey | USC -7.5 (-22.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.2 (-20.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USC -5.3 (-20.3) | 136.6 (-21.6) | 67% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USC -5.3 (-20.3) | 136.0 (-21.0) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USC -5.8 (-20.8) | 134.9 (-19.9) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USC -5.8 (-20.8) | 135.1 (-20.1) | 71% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | UCLA 89 – 68 USC |
| Feb 25, 2026 | UCLA 81 – 62 USC |
| Mar 9, 2025 | UCLA 90 – 63 USC |
| Jan 28, 2025 | UCLA 82 – 76 USC |
| Feb 25, 2024 | USC 62 – 56 UCLA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USC | UCLA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 10-10 |
| Home | 9-6 | 9-7 |
| Away | 3-9 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 65.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 66.0 |
| Massey | 6.7 (#87) | 2.8 (#130) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.62 (#121) | -0.14 (#191) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.02 (#107) | -0.06 (#176) |
| RPI | 0.532 (#124) | 0.489 (#195) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USC | UCLA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 29.9% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 45.7% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.2% | 26.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.1% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
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