Betting Lines
| Spread | UCLA -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | UCLA -213 USC +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USC +6 | 118 | Lost |
| Massey | UCLA -3.8 (-9.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.8 (-15.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCLA -3.9 (-9.9) | 135.7 (-17.7) | 69% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCLA -5.1 (-11.1) | 134.7 (-16.7) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCLA -3.5 (-9.5) | 133.3 (-15.3) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCLA -3.5 (-9.5) | 133.8 (-15.8) | 66% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | UCLA 89 – 68 USC |
| Feb 25, 2026 | UCLA 81 – 62 USC |
| Mar 9, 2025 | UCLA 90 – 63 USC |
| Jan 28, 2025 | UCLA 82 – 76 USC |
| Jan 28, 2024 | UCLA 65 – 50 USC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCLA | USC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 8-12 |
| Home | 9-7 | 9-6 |
| Away | 5-6 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.7 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.0 | 74.3 |
| Massey | 5.7 (#94) | 5.2 (#100) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.78 (#114) | 0.28 (#148) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.08 (#110) | 0.55 (#135) |
| RPI | 0.518 (#144) | 0.506 (#166) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCLA | USC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.4% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.0% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.9% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 66.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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