Why don't you get back into bed. "Reasons to be Cheerful, Part 3" - Ian Dury & the Blockheads
Ohio Valley Conference · Ellis T. Johnson Arena · February 25, 2026
Betting Lines
Spread MORE -7.5 Away covered
O/U 142.5 Under
Money MORE -360 / USI +285
Model Predictions
Spread Total MORE win
Actual MORE +1 127 Won
Massey MORE -8.2 (-7.2) — —
Massey Totals — 144.3 (-17.3) —
Bradley-Terry — — 94% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 94% ✓
Baseline Plus ML MORE -7.8 (-6.8) 144.4 (-17.4) 78% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ MORE -7.0 (-6.0) 143.4 (-16.4) 79% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML MORE -8.1 (-7.1) 141.4 (-14.4) 81% ✓
Baseline ML MORE -7.8 (-6.8) 143.4 (-16.4) 78% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 20, 2025 MORE 64 – 60 USI
Jan 29, 2025 MORE 66 – 65 USI
Jan 1, 2025 MORE 70 – 68 USI
Feb 21, 2024 USI 80 – 73 MORE
Jan 20, 2024 MORE 81 – 70 USI

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings MORE USI
Overall 20-13 7-23
Conference 15-5 4-16
Home 11-2 3-10
Away 7-10 4-11
Neutral 2-1 0-2
Last 5 5-0 2-3
Streak L1 L2
Avg Pts For 72.0 67.0
Avg Pts Against 75.5 74.3
Massey -7.5 (#284) -12.9 (#335)
Bradley-Terry -0.57 (#227) -2.77 (#355)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.09 (#248) -3.33 (#352)
RPI 0.498 (#188) 0.372 (#358)
Shooting & Four Factors MORE USI
FG% 44.8% 37.9%
3PT% 32.5% 30.2%
REB / G 35.5 36.5
OREB / G 12.3 12.5
AST / TO 0.98 0.80
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 49.8% 44.0%
TOV% 18.8% 17.5%
ORB% 36.5% 30.8%
FT Rate 27.4% 24.9%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 50.4% 48.9%
Opp TOV% 15.6% 16.8%
DRB% 63.9% 65.9%
Opp FT Rate 26.2% 26.5%

Game Analysis

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