I'll write on your tombstone, "I thank you for dinner." "Bungle in the Jungle" - Jethro Tull
Ohio Valley Conference · Liberty Arena (IN) · December 20, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread MORE -1.5 Away covered
O/U 145.5 Under
Money USI +105 / MORE -125
Model Predictions
Spread Total USI win
Actual MORE +4 124 Lost
Massey MORE -0.7 (-3.3) — —
Massey Totals — 147.0 (-23.0) —
Bradley-Terry — — 39% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 41% ✓
Baseline Plus ML MORE -0.5 (-3.5) 143.7 (-19.7) 47% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ USI -0.5 (-4.5) 144.3 (-20.3) 48% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML MORE -0.1 (-3.9) 139.5 (-15.5) 44% ✓
Baseline ML USI -0.1 (-4.1) 141.8 (-17.8) 42% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 25, 2026 MORE 64 – 63 USI
Jan 29, 2025 MORE 66 – 65 USI
Jan 1, 2025 MORE 70 – 68 USI
Feb 21, 2024 USI 80 – 73 MORE
Jan 20, 2024 MORE 81 – 70 USI

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings USI MORE
Overall 7-23 20-13
Conference 4-16 15-5
Home 3-10 11-2
Away 4-11 7-10
Neutral 0-2 2-1
Last 5 1-4 2-3
Streak L2 L1
Avg Pts For 67.0 72.0
Avg Pts Against 74.3 75.5
Massey -13.5 (#340) -8.5 (#300)
Bradley-Terry -3.12 (#348) -1.87 (#311)
W. Bradley-Terry -3.91 (#341) -2.66 (#317)
RPI 0.329 (#359) 0.424 (#302)
Shooting & Four Factors USI MORE
FG% 38.3% 40.8%
3PT% 28.9% 30.6%
REB / G 35.8 37.1
OREB / G 10.3 13.4
AST / TO 0.91 0.73
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 44.4% 45.9%
TOV% 15.9% 21.1%
ORB% 24.6% 35.1%
FT Rate 23.1% 24.2%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 50.4% 52.4%
Opp TOV% 16.6% 16.5%
DRB% 67.2% 61.4%
Opp FT Rate 27.3% 26.7%

Game Analysis

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