I just keep on rolling along with the grace of the Lord above. "Heartbreaker" - Led Zeppelin
Ohio Valley Conference · Ellis T. Johnson Arena · February 21, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread MORE -15.5 Away covered
O/U 138.5 Over
Money MORE -2000 / USI +800
Model Predictions
Spread Total MORE win
Actual USI +7 153 Lost
Massey MORE -17.1 (-24.1)
Massey Totals 136.7 (+16.3)
Bradley-Terry 98%
Weighted B-T 99%
Efficiency Plus ML MORE -13.0 (-20.0) 138.3 (+14.7) 85%
Baseline Tuned ML MORE -13.8 (-20.8) 140.4 (+12.6) 87%
Baseline ML MORE -13.3 (-20.3) 141.2 (+11.8) 86%
Baseline Plus ML MORE -13.4 (-20.4) 139.6 (+13.4) 86%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 25, 2026 MORE 6463 USI
Dec 20, 2025 MORE 6460 USI
Jan 29, 2025 MORE 6665 USI
Jan 1, 2025 MORE 7068 USI
Jan 20, 2024 MORE 8170 USI

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings MORE USI
Overall 26-9 8-24
Conference 14-4 5-13
Home 14-1 5-10
Away 9-7 3-13
Neutral 3-1 0-1
Last 5 3-2 1-4
Streak L1 L4
Avg Pts For 72.3 66.9
Avg Pts Against 66.3 75.0
Massey 2.8 (#126) -10.9 (#329)
Bradley-Terry 0.71 (#119) -2.48 (#345)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.86 (#121) -2.92 (#341)
RPI 0.559 (#79) 0.402 (#334)
Shooting & Four Factors MORE USI
FG% 46.1% 39.6%
3PT% 34.5% 31.7%
REB / G 36.1 35.7
OREB / G 10.3 10.0
AST / TO 1.07 0.77
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 53.7% 45.2%
TOV% 19.0% 20.1%
ORB% 32.5% 27.6%
FT Rate 22.6% 27.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 46.4% 49.4%
Opp TOV% 15.2% 16.3%
DRB% 72.6% 72.0%
Opp FT Rate 25.8% 34.9%

Game Analysis

Loading game analysis…

Failed to load game analysis.