Somehow I stayed thin, while the other guys got fat "Rush" - Big Audio Dynamite
Ohio Valley Conference · Ellis T. Johnson Arena · January 29, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread MORE -7.5 Away covered
O/U 134.5 Under
Money MORE -360 / USI +280
Model Predictions
Spread Total MORE win
Actual MORE +1 131 Won
Massey MORE -5.3 (-4.3) — —
Massey Totals — 137.3 (-6.3) —
Bradley-Terry — — 88% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 88% ✓
Baseline Plus ML MORE -4.6 (-3.6) 136.0 (-5.0) 70% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ MORE -7.7 (-6.7) 134.5 (-3.5) 80% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML MORE -4.7 (-3.7) 134.7 (-3.7) 73% ✓
Baseline ML MORE -5.2 (-4.2) 135.4 (-4.4) 70% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 25, 2026 MORE 64 – 63 USI
Dec 20, 2025 MORE 64 – 60 USI
Jan 1, 2025 MORE 70 – 68 USI
Feb 21, 2024 USI 80 – 73 MORE
Jan 20, 2024 MORE 81 – 70 USI

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings MORE USI
Overall 15-17 10-20
Conference 10-10 5-15
Home 9-5 8-7
Away 6-10 2-13
Neutral 0-2 0-0
Last 5 4-1 3-2
Streak L1 L2
Avg Pts For 63.7 69.6
Avg Pts Against 69.8 75.1
Massey -6.9 (#276) -8.9 (#307)
Bradley-Terry -0.23 (#196) -1.61 (#310)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.91 (#236) -2.22 (#317)
RPI 0.505 (#172) 0.410 (#323)
Shooting & Four Factors MORE USI
FG% 41.8% 42.9%
3PT% 32.8% 35.2%
REB / G 36.4 35.1
OREB / G 11.0 10.1
AST / TO 0.89 0.87
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 47.2% 48.6%
TOV% 18.7% 17.4%
ORB% 31.1% 28.5%
FT Rate 25.3% 25.0%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 49.3% 51.7%
Opp TOV% 13.8% 17.0%
DRB% 74.8% 69.6%
Opp FT Rate 25.2% 26.1%

Game Analysis

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