Betting Lines
| Spread | IU -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | IU -470 NU +360 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NU +4 | 140 | Lost |
| Massey | IU -8.9 (-12.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.1 (-9.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IU -9.9 (-13.9) | 147.4 (-7.4) | 83% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IU -9.1 (-13.1) | 145.7 (-5.7) | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IU -9.5 (-13.5) | 145.7 (-5.7) | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | IU -8.4 (-12.4) | 145.6 (-5.6) | 84% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | NU 74 – 61 IU |
| Jan 23, 2025 | NU 79 – 70 IU |
| Feb 18, 2024 | NU 76 – 72 IU |
| Feb 16, 2023 | NU 64 – 62 IU |
| Jan 8, 2023 | NU 84 – 83 IU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IU | NU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 15-19 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 5-15 |
| Home | 14-4 | 9-8 |
| Away | 3-8 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.2 | 73.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.2 | 72.0 |
| Massey | 14.7 (#36) | 8.8 (#67) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.23 (#42) | 0.74 (#100) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.56 (#48) | 1.08 (#96) |
| RPI | 0.575 (#52) | 0.510 (#158) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IU | NU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.68 | 2.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.1% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 12.8% |
| ORB% | 27.4% | 27.3% |
| FT Rate | 28.0% | 26.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 65.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.9% | 26.4% |
Game Analysis
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