Betting Lines
| Spread | IU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | IU -154 NU +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NU +4 | 148 | Lost |
| Massey | NU -0.8 (-3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.7 (+3.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NU -0.4 (-3.6) | 143.2 (+4.8) | 46% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NU -0.3 (-3.7) | 140.4 (+7.6) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IU -0.5 (-4.5) | 143.9 (+4.1) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | IU -0.3 (-4.3) | 144.0 (+4.0) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | NU 74 – 61 IU |
| Feb 25, 2026 | NU 72 – 68 IU |
| Jan 23, 2025 | NU 79 – 70 IU |
| Feb 16, 2023 | NU 64 – 62 IU |
| Jan 8, 2023 | NU 84 – 83 IU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IU | NU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 12-8 |
| Home | 12-5 | 15-2 |
| Away | 4-6 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.3 | 73.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 69.1 |
| Massey | 5.0 (#102) | 9.2 (#61) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.50 (#64) | 2.01 (#39) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.78 (#71) | 2.63 (#31) |
| RPI | 0.564 (#74) | 0.571 (#63) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IU | NU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 39.4% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 1.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 13.9% |
| ORB% | 27.5% | 25.8% |
| FT Rate | 27.0% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 30.3% |
Game Analysis
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