Betting Lines
| Spread | NAVY -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | L-MD +245 NAVY -305 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | L-MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAVY +27 | 129 | Lost |
| Massey | NAVY -8.3 (-18.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.9 (-17.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 13% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 12% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAVY -6.8 (-20.2) | 142.7 (-13.7) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAVY -8.3 (-18.7) | 143.0 (-14.0) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NAVY -7.2 (-19.8) | 145.2 (-16.2) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAVY -7.9 (-19.1) | 143.9 (-14.9) | 22% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | NAVY 87 – 71 L-MD |
| Mar 1, 2025 | NAVY 81 – 68 L-MD |
| Jan 11, 2025 | L-MD 75 – 74 NAVY |
| Mar 6, 2024 | NAVY 64 – 48 L-MD |
| Feb 22, 2024 | NAVY 69 – 62 L-MD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | L-MD | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 17-1 |
| Home | 8-6 | 15-2 |
| Away | 3-13 | 10-5 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.5 | 65.6 |
| Massey | -10.7 (#316) | 0.6 (#154) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.06 (#337) | 0.32 (#137) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.61 (#335) | -0.03 (#167) |
| RPI | 0.416 (#330) | 0.526 (#118) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | L-MD | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 27.4% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 29.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.3% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
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