Betting Lines
| Spread | L-MD -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | L-MD -150 NAVY +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | L-MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | L-MD +1 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | L-MD -7.0 (-6.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.4 (+1.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | L-MD -4.1 (-3.1) | 143.0 (+6.0) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | L-MD -5.0 (-4.0) | 142.5 (+6.5) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | L-MD -4.7 (-3.7) | 143.2 (+5.8) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | L-MD -4.7 (-3.7) | 142.5 (+6.5) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | NAVY 78 – 51 L-MD |
| Jan 31, 2026 | NAVY 87 – 71 L-MD |
| Mar 1, 2025 | NAVY 81 – 68 L-MD |
| Mar 6, 2024 | NAVY 64 – 48 L-MD |
| Feb 22, 2024 | NAVY 69 – 62 L-MD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | L-MD | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-19 | 15-19 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 10-8 |
| Home | 7-7 | 9-5 |
| Away | 5-12 | 6-12 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.7 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.1 | 71.2 |
| Massey | -6.2 (#273) | -9.2 (#315) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.01 (#265) | -2.22 (#336) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.23 (#257) | -2.81 (#335) |
| RPI | 0.445 (#274) | 0.359 (#354) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | L-MD | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 40.9% |
| 3PT% | 30.2% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 47.3% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 31.3% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 53.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.1% | 25.4% |
Game Analysis
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