Betting Lines
| Spread | NAVY -6.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | NAVY -278 L-MD +222 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAVY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAVY +16 | 112 | Won |
| Massey | NAVY -7.1 (+8.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.5 (-20.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAVY -5.8 (+10.2) | 130.1 (-18.1) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAVY -5.4 (+10.6) | 131.7 (-19.7) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NAVY -5.5 (+10.5) | 131.6 (-19.6) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAVY -5.9 (+10.1) | 131.0 (-19.0) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | NAVY 78 – 51 L-MD |
| Jan 31, 2026 | NAVY 87 – 71 L-MD |
| Mar 1, 2025 | NAVY 81 – 68 L-MD |
| Jan 11, 2025 | L-MD 75 – 74 NAVY |
| Feb 22, 2024 | NAVY 69 – 62 L-MD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAVY | L-MD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-18 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 5-13 |
| Home | 10-5 | 2-11 |
| Away | 3-13 | 5-13 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.6 | 63.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 72.4 |
| Massey | -8.9 (#312) | -12.8 (#337) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.06 (#335) | -2.83 (#355) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.50 (#332) | -3.58 (#354) |
| RPI | 0.407 (#335) | 0.390 (#349) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAVY | L-MD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.0% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 30.1% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.0% | 47.8% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 28.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 19.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 53.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.8% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.4% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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