Betting Lines
| Spread | NAVY -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | NAVY -190 L-MD +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAVY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAVY +13 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | NAVY -4.9 (+8.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.6 (+9.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAVY -4.5 (+8.5) | 135.7 (+13.3) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAVY -4.4 (+8.6) | 135.2 (+13.8) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NAVY -4.2 (+8.8) | 136.1 (+12.9) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAVY -4.2 (+8.8) | 137.4 (+11.6) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | NAVY 78 – 51 L-MD |
| Jan 31, 2026 | NAVY 87 – 71 L-MD |
| Jan 11, 2025 | L-MD 75 – 74 NAVY |
| Mar 6, 2024 | NAVY 64 – 48 L-MD |
| Feb 22, 2024 | NAVY 69 – 62 L-MD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAVY | L-MD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-19 | 12-19 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 6-12 |
| Home | 9-5 | 7-7 |
| Away | 6-12 | 5-12 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.1 | 68.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 72.1 |
| Massey | -7.0 (#275) | -8.7 (#309) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.51 (#306) | -1.59 (#313) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.76 (#295) | -1.87 (#302) |
| RPI | 0.425 (#317) | 0.424 (#319) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAVY | L-MD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.9% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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