Betting Lines
| Spread | NAVY -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | NAVY -520 L-MD +390 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAVY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAVY +16 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | NAVY -13.5 (+2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.6 (+14.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAVY -11.2 (+4.8) | 139.3 (+18.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAVY -10.6 (+5.4) | 139.8 (+18.2) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAVY -9.9 (+6.1) | 137.8 (+20.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NAVY -11.3 (+4.7) | 138.9 (+19.1) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | NAVY 78 – 51 L-MD |
| Mar 1, 2025 | NAVY 81 – 68 L-MD |
| Jan 11, 2025 | L-MD 75 – 74 NAVY |
| Mar 6, 2024 | NAVY 64 – 48 L-MD |
| Feb 22, 2024 | NAVY 69 – 62 L-MD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAVY | L-MD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 8-10 |
| Home | 15-2 | 8-6 |
| Away | 10-5 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.6 | 78.5 |
| Massey | -0.9 (#180) | -11.3 (#321) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.12 (#185) | -2.30 (#342) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.51 (#205) | -2.85 (#340) |
| RPI | 0.491 (#199) | 0.387 (#349) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAVY | L-MD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 28.7% |
| FT Rate | 29.9% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 54.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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