Betting Lines
| Spread | L-MD -2.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.0 Under |
| Money | L-MD -130 NAVY +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | L-MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAVY +7 | 131 | Lost |
| Massey | L-MD -0.9 (-7.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.4 (-0.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAVY -1.0 (-6.0) | 130.4 (+0.6) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | L-MD -0.8 (-7.8) | 131.1 (-0.1) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | L-MD -0.4 (-7.4) | 131.9 (-0.9) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAVY -0.7 (-6.3) | 130.4 (+0.6) | 42% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | NAVY 78 – 51 L-MD |
| Jan 31, 2026 | NAVY 87 – 71 L-MD |
| Mar 1, 2025 | NAVY 81 – 68 L-MD |
| Jan 11, 2025 | L-MD 75 – 74 NAVY |
| Mar 6, 2024 | NAVY 64 – 48 L-MD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | L-MD | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 8-10 |
| Home | 2-11 | 10-5 |
| Away | 5-13 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.2 | 65.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 67.8 |
| Massey | -12.1 (#336) | -9.6 (#318) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.73 (#355) | -2.55 (#347) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.39 (#353) | -3.01 (#343) |
| RPI | 0.388 (#347) | 0.370 (#359) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | L-MD | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 38.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 28.2% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 43.4% |
| TOV% | 20.9% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 19.5% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.2% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 21.9% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 27.2% |
Game Analysis
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