Betting Lines
| Spread | STAN -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | STAN -425 PITT +330 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STAN +8 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | STAN -6.3 (+1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.9 (+1.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STAN -6.1 (+1.9) | 138.6 (+3.4) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STAN -6.7 (+1.3) | 136.2 (+5.8) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STAN -7.0 (+1.0) | 136.2 (+5.8) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STAN -6.8 (+1.2) | 136.9 (+5.1) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 10, 2026 | PITT 64 – 63 STAN |
| Jan 4, 2025 | PITT 83 – 68 STAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STAN | PITT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 5-13 |
| Home | 12-6 | 8-10 |
| Away | 5-5 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.0 | 70.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.0 | 71.8 |
| Massey | 8.6 (#74) | 5.2 (#102) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.55 (#65) | 0.31 (#140) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.79 (#72) | 0.49 (#129) |
| RPI | 0.560 (#67) | 0.495 (#191) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STAN | PITT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 33.8% |
| FT Rate | 26.9% | 20.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.9% | 24.6% |
Game Analysis
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